The Indus Under Pressure: Hydro-Politics, Climate Change, and Strategic Anxiety in South Asia

Abstract

The IWT's long-standing transboundary water cooperation, which has successfully endured wars, political hostility, and shifting regimes between India and Pakistan, now stands at a critical crossroads. The hydro-political landscape of South Asia is transforming, and India’s upstream control and perception often fuels suspicion and securitization. The conflict amplifies during a military crisis when water emerges as a source of sovereignty and strategic leverage. Environmental security is deeply linked to regional stability through shared ecological risks and interdependencies. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier by exacerbating existing water insecurities and geopolitical. The intersection of climate change, regional stability, and hydro-politics represents a critical nexus in international relations. In the South Asian region, IWT has long served as a diplomatic anchor between India and Pakistan. However, rising environmental uncertainty and political mistrust have revived old anxieties. Therefore, the theoretical framework draws upon securitization theory, the Hydro-hegemony framework, environmental geopolitics, and realism to interpret how climate change stress is reshaping water resource management in the South Asian region. In the context of accelerating climate change, increasing hydro-political competition, and rising strategic anxiety in South Asia, this paper critically examines the evolving dynamics of hydro-politics in the Indus Basin, analyzing how climatic stressors—such as glacial melt, unpredictable monsoons, and shifting river flows—are intensifying perceptions of water insecurity and transforming the region’s geopolitical terrain. This paper suggests that reimagining the IWT as a climate-resilient, politically insulated, and ecologically informed agreement is capable not only of reducing bilateral tensions but also of promoting long-term regional stability in South Asia.